Click Here for Our 2024 Harvest Policies

4/24/2025

New day....beans up again, corn trying, wheat slightly red.

• Chicago soybean futures rose for a fourth consecutive session on Thursday amid hopes that Washington and Beijing will de-escalate their trade war and allow the revival of U.S. soy exports to China. Corn futures steadied after falling on Wednesday under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar, while wheat continued to slip as rain in the U.S. and Black Sea cropping regions improved the supply outlook. The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Sv1 was up 0.4% at $10.54-1/4 a bushel at 0516 GMT and near Wednesday's intraday peak of $10.57-1/2, its highest level since February 24. China is by far the world's biggest soybean importer and has imposed counter-tariffs on the United States that make it prohibitively expensive to import U.S. soybeans. Trump and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week suggested they would welcome de-escalation, with Bessent saying high tariffs were not sustainable. Speculators have responded to the change in tone by buying soybeans, traders say.

• A case pending before Brazil's Supreme Court gives the soy industry a chance to improve the "soy moratorium," an agreement that banned purchases of the oilseed from deforested Amazon areas after a cutoff date in 2008, said Andre Nassar, head of Brazil's soybean traders lobby Abiove, on Wednesday. Speaking before the Senate's agriculture committee, Nassar cited a Supreme Court case that will determine if a law passed by Mato Grosso state removing tax incentives for signatories of the soy moratorium is constitutional. "The solution is not to end the moratorium. Nor to keep it the way it is," he told legislators and groups representing farmers who want to end the moratorium. "Something different has to be done."

• Argentina's main farm regions will see mostly dry weather over the next seven days, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said on Wednesday, which should help speed up the delayed 2024/25 soybean harvest that has been hampered by sodden fields. Heavy rains in March and early April delayed the soybean harvest to a level below the average of the last five years, according to exchange, putting grain yields at risk. "High atmospheric pressure conditions will prevail in the coming days, bringing mostly clear skies, causing most of the farming area to see little to no rainfall," said the exchange, which estimates a soybean harvest of 48.6 million metric tons. Harvest delays have also contributed to a slowdown in soybean sales. As of April 16, farmers had sold some 23.4% of the 2024/25 crop, the slowest pace for that date in ten years, according to the Secretariat of Agriculture.

• Coffee bean prices in Vietnam on Thursday were down slightly from a week earlier, with the Indonesian discount narrowing on London price strength and tight supplies, traders said on Thursday. Farmers in the Central Highlands, Vietnam's largest coffee-growing region, sold beans at 130,000-130,500 dong ($5.00-$5.02) on Thursday, down from 132,700-133,700 dong a week earlier. "The slight fall in domestic prices doesn't fully reflect the global market situation, but it shows that some farmers are under pressure to sell for cash to take care of their farms," a trader based in the Central Highlands said. "Farmers are still holding around 40% of their 2024-2025 harvest." The trader, however, said that prices are unlikely to fall further in the short term because most farmers are holding on to their beans to wait for higher prices.

• Argentina crushed 3.2 MMT of soybeans in March, a 22%/584 K increase from February and up 8% versus March 2024. The record large Apr-Mar total at 43.5 MMT is a 14.4 MMT increase over the prior year which was severely affected by a widespread drought.  Should U.S./China trade relations stay on the frigid side, Argentina will export more beans (to China)/crush less in the coming year.  This potential could keep the U.S. crush near USDA expectations (world SBM imports up 10% TY/).

CORN:

• Estimates for weekly USDA Export Sales report at 7:30 am CDT; corn, 31-51 mbu for 24/25; 0-4 for 25/26
• Ethanol grind: 1,033,000 bpd for week ending April 18, up 2.1% vs. last week and up 8.3% compared to last year. Stocks were 25.481 mb, dn 1.333 mb from the prior week and well below the avg. trade est. of a 0.171 decrease
• Organized thunderstorms occur Thursday and Friday with substantial totals of 1.00”-2.00” for the southern ~30% of second-corn in Brazil. While an extended period of drier weather follows, completely dry conditions are unlikely through the first week of May. Isolated to scattered storms continue into the end of the month for the northern ~70% of second-corn in Brazil
• May looks warmer and drier, favorable for planting; Funds sell 7 K

SOYBEANS:

• Trade estimates for USDA Export Sales report (week ending April 17)
  • Beans: 7-22 for 24/25 and 0-7 for 25/26
  • Meal: 150-350 for 24/25 and 0-50 for 25/26
  • Oil: 0-25 for 24/25 and 0-10 for 25/26
• ATI Research: U.S. beans planted for the week ending April 27 show the 5-year avg. at 12% vs. 17% last year; planting this year was 8% complete as ofApril 20
• In Argentina, seasonable to slightly cool and fairly dry weather dominate over the next 14 days to allow harvesting to advance
• Funds bought 3 SB, 3 BO, sold 1 M. May Crush, -$.04 @ $1.26

MACRO:

• Stock futures weaker ahead of the opening. No talks with China yet.
• Wall Street Futures - Weaker:  Dow, -215; S&P, -18; NAS, -51
• Asia - Mixed:  Nikkei, +0.49%; Shanghai, +0.03%; Hang Seng, -0.74%
• EUROPE - Slightly Weaker:  DAX, -0.13%; FTSE, -0.13%; CAC -0.22%
• June Gold: +$48.3 @$3,342     June CRUDE: +$0.52 @$62.79     June U.S. Dollar Index: -0.581 @99.636